The Asia Development Bank (ADB) reports that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Pakistan for fiscal year 2025 is expected to increase to 3% from the previous forecast of 2.8% for September. Growth for FY2024 has, however, been revised upward to 2.5% in line with the recent revised official estimates. The upward revision is attributed to improved macroeconomic stability following the approval last September of the new IMF program under the Extended Fund Facility to support the recovery.
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Industrial output growth is expected to pick up momentum with the lifting of import restrictions, greater confidence from investors, and easier access to foreign exchange. Also, a more expansionary monetary policy that would result from faster-than-expected easing of inflationary pressures should further stimulate economic activities by reviving private investment.
Heavy monsoon rains during July to September 2024, combined with flood-like conditions in the country’s some parts, are expected to weaken agricultural growth. Wheat and cotton, the two major crops, are projected to perform poorly in FY2025.